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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 41

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 15

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 2-A.Lee punts 32 yards to SEA 9, Center-49-J.Drescher, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.41 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP