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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 24

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 15

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 4-P.Dawson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.67 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model