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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 51

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to ARI 8, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 33-K.Williams. PENALTY on ARI-28-J.Bethel, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at ARI 8.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.22 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 51, worth -3.24 EP
KICK -2.03 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model