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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 89

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 9-J.Ryan punts 52 yards to ARI 37, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-K.Williams to SEA 47 for 16 yards (57-M.Wilhoite).

The Three Options

GO -3.44 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.03 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 89, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 46, worth -2.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model