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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 9-J.Ryan punts 57 yards to ARI 2, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-K.Williams pushed ob at ARI 15 for 13 yards (52-T.Garvin). PENALTY on ARI-28-J.Bethel, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at ARI 2.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.48 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 59, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model