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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 82

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to ARI 40, Center-69-T.Ott. 33-K.Williams pushed ob at SEA 48 for 12 yards (69-T.Ott).

The Three Options

GO -3.30 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 82, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 40, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model