Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 65

New York Jets 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

(14:05) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 59 yards to TB 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-B.Reedy to 50 for 44 yards (4-L.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.37 EP
68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model