Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15 – New York Jets 3

(2:00) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 40 yards to NYJ 30, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.61 EP
55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 70, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model