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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.92 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 19, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP