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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(5:24) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to NYJ 32, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 30 for -2 yards (26-J.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.97 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 31, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model