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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(10:47) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.93 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model