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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 54

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:46) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 34 yards to NYJ 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-59-D.Bond.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.45 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 54, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model