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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 33

New England Patriots 41 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(:32) 2-B.Hoyer pass short left to 14-B.Cooks to DEN 33 for no gain (29-B.Roby).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.19 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.18 EP