Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 59

Denver Broncos 6 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 34-R.Burkhead, Center-42-C.Kreiter, recovered by DEN-9-R.Dixon at DEN 30. 9-R.Dixon to DEN 30 for no gain (38-B.Bolden).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.01 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -3.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model