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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 85

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(7:43) (Punt formation) 8-D.Kaser punts 61 yards to JAX 24, Center-47-M.Windt. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 38 for 14 yards (25-R.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.23 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.52 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 43, worth -2.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP