Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:06) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 30 yards to LAC 29, Center-40-T.Bohanon, downed by JAX-52-D.Payne. PENALTY on JAX-25-P.Thompson, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 29.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.58 EP
67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model