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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:16) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 33 yards to LAC 7, Center-43-M.Overton, downed by JAX-17-A.Benn.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.67 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP