Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 79

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

(14:06) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 60 yards to LAC 19, Center-43-M.Overton. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 23 for 4 yards (25-P.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.17 EP
56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model