Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 73

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

(14:07) 3-B.Nortman punts 55 yards to LAC 18, Center-43-M.Overton. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 24 for 6 yards (55-L.McCray; 80-J.O'Shaughnessy).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model