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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 36

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 8-D.Kaser punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.14 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP