Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 81

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Houston Texans 0

(8:20) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to HOU 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-B.Ellington ran ob at HOU 43 for 17 yards (6-J.Hekker).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.72 EP
65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model