Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 80

Houston Texans 7 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to LA 37, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at HOU 36 for 27 yards (52-B.Peters). HOU-46-J.Weeks was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model