Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 52

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.14 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.79 EP

KICK -1.41 EP

27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
73% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model