Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 70

Houston Texans 7 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to LA 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-P.Cooper to LA 18 for 4 yards (41-Z.Cunningham). PENALTY on LA-50-S.Ebukam, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at LA 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model