Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 63

Los Angeles Rams 9 – Houston Texans 7

(13:18) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to HOU 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.97 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model