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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 32

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(:19) 4-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.86 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model