Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Houston Texans 7

(3:39) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 10-P.Cooper to LA 38 for 6 yards (23-K.Drummond).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

What Happened

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.02 EP
59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP