4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 22

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(7:25) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-D.Hart, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.46 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP