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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 31

Chicago Bears 13 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(3:23) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.53 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model