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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 32

Green Bay Packers 13 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(13:14) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-D.Hart, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.09 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -2.14 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.19 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model