Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 82

Chicago Bears 6 – Green Bay Packers 13

(2:40) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to GB 42, Center-49-A.DePaola, downed by CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.40 EP
63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model