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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 73

Chicago Bears 6 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(8:20) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to GB 31, Center-49-A.DePaola. 11-T.Davis pushed ob at GB 43 for 12 yards (84-B.Braunecker).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.15 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model