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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 6

Green Bay Packers 10 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(10:20) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-D.Hart, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

The Three Options

GO +3.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.69 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 6, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.87 EP