4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 26

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. PENALTY on CHI-79-B.Sowell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.75 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model