Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 58

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(12:09) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 59 yards to GB -1, Center-49-A.DePaola. 11-T.Davis to GB 8 for 9 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.18 EP
62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model