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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 80

Green Bay Packers 10 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(1:49) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 53 yards to CHI 27, Center-54-D.Hart. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 35 for 8 yards (47-J.Ryan).

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.49 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 80, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 37, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model