Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 74

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:27) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to GB 28, Center-49-A.DePaola. 11-T.Davis to GB 34 for 6 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson). PENALTY on GB-41-L.Pipkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.37 EP
76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model