Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 10 – Chicago Bears 3

(5:16) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 37 yards to CHI 34, Center-54-D.Hart, downed by GB-54-D.Hart.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.79 EP
68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model