4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 56

Cleveland Browns 10 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(3:49) (Shotgun) 29-D.Johnson up the middle to CLE 45 for 1 yard (69-A.Zettel). Detroit challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.20 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 56, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model