4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 45

Cleveland Browns 24 – Detroit Lions 38

What Actually Happened

(2:10) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short left to 18-K.Britt to DET 26 for 19 yards (32-T.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.43 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -1.53 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model