Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 24 – Detroit Lions 38

(3:36) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short middle to 87-S.DeValve to CLE 38 for 9 yards (35-M.Killebrew) [97-A.Spence].

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.21 EP
62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP