Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 86

Cleveland Browns 24 – Detroit Lions 31

(5:32) 4-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to DET 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 39-J.Agnew to CLE 44 for 29 yards (49-J.Keyes).

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.05 EP
72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 86, worth -4.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model