Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 78

Cleveland Browns 24 – Detroit Lions 24

(15:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to DET 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 39-J.Agnew to DET 39 for 6 yards (36-D.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 78, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model