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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 48

Detroit Lions 17 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.18 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model