4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 5

Cleveland Browns 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 5-Z.Gonzalez 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 5, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model