Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 75

Detroit Lions 10 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to CLE 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers. PENALTY on CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.03 EP
72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model