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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 46

Cleveland Browns 10 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 36 yards to DET 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.33 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model