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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 37

Detroit Lions 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.13 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model