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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (91-A.Robinson), Center-54-D.Hart, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.25 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 20, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model