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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 70

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 8-J.Vogel punts 43 yards to DET 27, Center-54-D.Hart. 39-J.Agnew to DET 36 for 9 yards (54-D.Hart; 25-M.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.00 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 70, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model